Wen AGI?

Current average AGI estimate

We have invited many notable people and firms in AI to present us estimates for once they think AGI (artificial general intelligence) can be achieved. We then average the estimates to supply this countdown. When date ranges are given as estimates we use the lower end for our countdown – so the typical estimate is a little more aggressive than the actual estimates might suggest.

Definitions of AGI will vary but we’ll leave this countdown open to every contributor’s own interpretation of the precise meaning.

The current estimate based on 3 contributions is 2025-10-01.

Using https://onlinetimetools.com/calculate-average-calendar-date

This is by all means not a rigorous scientific approach to the subject of AGI and a proper approach to estimating its “arrival”” date. Also, after all, the subject of AGI itself isn’t well defined – if it will probably be precisely defined in any respect. This is, nonetheless, an interesting topic normally and due to this fact we considered it worthwhile exploring.

Contributors

Here’s the list of current contributors (now we have many more invitations pending via Twitter DMs) to the estimate, including some thoughts concerning the estimate, when provided:

Jacob Valdez – 2023-12-31

Elon Musk? (invitation for an estimate has been sent)

Robert Scoble? (invitation for an estimate has been sent)

Geoffrey Hinton – 2028-04-01 (5 to twenty, down from 20 to 50, years as of March 2023, source)

Steve Digital – 2025-01-01

”2022, especially, and the prior years have shown tremendous progress in AI. 2023 will easily trump that for my part and with further leaps in emergent behaviours and talents I expect AGI to be with us no later than the start of 2025. This is a really optimistic timeline. I’m also weary of what that can mean for humankind but I actually have hopes that we are going to use AGI to dramatically improve everyone’s lives worldwide.”

Other contributions

After inviting many individuals we did also get feedback that principally stated that this text is ridiculous or not less than not well-defined enough to warrant an attempt at estimating a date or date range. They are totally legitimate and principally correct, but that didn’t stop us from exploring the subject. Here are some examples.